Population growth projections have recently emerged as a controversy. The Conference Board of Canada released a projection that the population of the province will drop to 482,000 in 2035.  Danny Williams declared the projection "bullshit" and city councillor Tom Hann also voiced criticism.

For fun, I decided to do my own projections using a very simple model under a few different scenarios.  In the models below, I assume:

1. Every person dies on their 80th birthday.*
2. There is an equal number of males and females in each age group.

* To be consistent I ignore everyone currently over 80 years old, so my population in 2013 is 507,000 instead of the actual 527,000.  This makes no difference to the projections, because 80 year olds don't have children.

Here is the chart.  The scenarios are explained below.




In the first scenario, I assume that fertility rate remains constant and equal to the average of the last five years. I also assume that net immigration is zero (both international and interprovincial).  I get this table:

Scenario 1

	2013	2018	2023	2028	2033	2038	2043	2048	2053	2057
Population under 80	507239	515643	517034	506214	487204	464429	440218	416780	397367	381402
0 to 4	24162	23961	23270	22314	20996	19815	18978	18345	17791	17117
5 to 9	25660	24162	23961	23270	22314	20996	19815	18978	18345	17791
10 to 14	26429	25660	24162	23961	23270	22314	20996	19815	18978	18345
15 to 19	28830	26429	25660	24162	23961	23270	22314	20996	19815	18978
20 to 24	31400	28830	26429	25660	24162	23961	23270	22314	20996	19815
25 to 29	30810	31400	28830	26429	25660	24162	23961	23270	22314	20996
30 to 34	31524	30810	31400	28830	26429	25660	24162	23961	23270	22314
35 to 39	33082	31524	30810	31400	28830	26429	25660	24162	23961	23270
40 to 44	37204	33082	31524	30810	31400	28830	26429	25660	24162	23961
45 to 49	41783	37204	33082	31524	30810	31400	28830	26429	25660	24162
50 to 54	43189	41783	37204	33082	31524	30810	31400	28830	26429	25660
55 to 59	42590	43189	41783	37204	33082	31524	30810	31400	28830	26429
60 to 64	40006	42590	43189	41783	37204	33082	31524	30810	31400	28830
65 to 69	33134	40006	42590	43189	41783	37204	33082	31524	30810	31400
70 to 74	21879	33134	40006	42590	43189	41783	37204	33082	31524	30810
75 to 79	15557	21879	33134	40006	42590	43189	41783	37204	33082	31524
80 to 84	10402	15557	21879	33134	40006	42590	43189	41783	37204	33082

2013	2018	2023	2028	2033	2038	2043	2048	2053	2057
507239	517704	521104	512312	495278	474394	452180	431155	414646	401814

There is very little change from scenario 1: the population peaks in 2023 and then starts to fall rapidly.  The population in 2035 is between 495,000 and 475,000 - in line with the Conference Board estimate.

In scenario 3,  I use current NL fertility rates, but assume immigration of 1000 twenty year olds per year (actually 5,000 every five years in lump sums).

Scenario 3

2013	2018	2023	2028	2033	2038	2043	2048	2053	2057
507239	520643	527764	523890	512979	498728	483131	468473	458251	452129

Again, the population peaks in 2023, but it doesn't fall as rapidly afterwards.  In 2035, our population is between 512,979 and 498,728 which is above the Conference Board estimate.

In scenario 4, I use current fertility rates but assume immigration of 2000 twenty year olds per year (actually 10,000 every five years in lump sums).

Scenario 4

	2013	2018	2023	2028	2033	2038	2043	2048	2053	2057
	507239	525643	538494	541566	538753	533027	526045	520168	519136	522857